WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump said on Sunday the sweeping tariffs that he has imposed on Mexico, Canada and China may cause “some pain” for Americans, as Wall Street and the largest US trading partners signalled hope that the trade war would not last long.
Trump, less than two weeks into his second White House term, defended the tariffs as necessary to curb illegal immigration and the drug trade.
Canada and Mexico said they were working together to face the 25% US duties on imports, which promise to jolt the integrated economies of three North American countries that have had free-trade agreements for decades.
Canada and Mexico vowed retaliatory measures after Trump’s Saturday move. China said it would challenge Trump’s 10% tariffs at the World Trade Organisation and take unspecified countermeasures.
Critics said the Republican president’s plan will slow global growth and hurt Americans by driving prices higher, but Trump defended his decision on social media on Sunday.
“The USA has major deficits with Canada, Mexico, and China (and almost all countries!), owes 36 Trillion Dollars, and we’re not going to be the ‘Stupid Country’ any longer,” the Republican president wrote.
Trump added, “THIS WILL BE THE GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA! WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!)”
Trump did not specify what he meant by “some pain.”
North American companies were braced for the move, which could upend industries from autos to consumer goods to energy.
A model gauging the economic impact of Trump’s tariff plan from EY chief economist Greg Daco suggests it would reduce US economic growth by 1.5 percentage points this year, throw
Canada and Mexico into recession and usher in “stagflation” – high inflation, stagnant economic growth and elevated unemployment – at home.
Trump’s move was the first strike in a what could be a destructive global trade war that would result in a surge in US inflation that would “come even faster and be larger than we initially expected,” said Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics.
Financial markets were closed for the weekend so the measures will initially be felt when US stock futures trading starts at 6pm ET (2300 GMT) on Sunday.
Tuesday deadline
The Trump tariffs, outlined in three executive orders, are due to take effect 12.01am ET (0501 GMT) on Tuesday.
Markets were awaiting developments with anxiety, but some analysts said there was some hope for negotiations, especially with Canada and China.
“With only two days before implementation, the tariffs look likely to take effect, though a last-minute compromise cannot be completely ruled out,” Goldman Sachs economists said in a note on Sunday.
They added that since the White House set very general conditions for their removal, the levies are likely to be temporary, “but the outlook is unclear.”
Trump vowed to keep them in place until what he described as a national emergency over fentanyl, a deadly opioid, and illegal immigration to the US ends.
China left the door open for talks with the US. Its sharpest pushback was over fentanyl.
“Fentanyl is America’s problem,” China’s foreign ministry said, adding that China has taken extensive measures to combat the problem.
Canada’s ambassador to the US, Kirsten Hillman, on Sunday signalled hope for an agreement.
“We’re hopeful that they don’t come into effect on Tuesday,” Hillman said in an ABC interview.
Hillman said Canadian officials are ready to keep talking to the US but that Canadians expect that their government “stands up for itself.”
Trump has heaped derision on Canada in particular, with calls for the country to become the 51st US state. On Sunday, he said Canada “ceases to exist as a viable country” without its “massive subsidy.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Sunday encouraged Canadians to boycott their longtime ally after promising retaliatory tariffs against $155 billion of US goods, from peanut butter, beer and wine to lumber and appliances.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her country’s sovereignty is not up for negotiation and that she would give more details on her country’s response to the US tariffs on Monday.
Following through
The tariff announcement made good on Trump’s repeated 2024 campaign threat, defying warnings from top economists that a new trade war with the top American trade partners would erode US and global growth, while raising prices for consumers and companies.
Trump is upending the norms of how the US is governed and interacts with its neighbours and wider world.
Trump declared a national emergency under laws called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the National Emergencies Act to back the tariffs. They give the president sweeping powers to impose sanctions to address crises.
Trade lawyers said Trump was once again testing the limits of US laws, and the tariffs could face legal challenges. Democratic lawmakers, Suzan DelBene and Don Beyer, decried what they called a blatant abuse of executive power.
Republicans welcomed Trump’s action. Industry groups and Democrats issued warnings about the impact on prices.
“No matter which way you slice it: costs are going to climb for consumers,” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said, vowing to try to “undo this mess.”
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week showed Americans were divided on tariffs, with 54% opposing new duties on imported goods and 43% in support, with Democrats more opposed and Republicans more supportive.
Investors look ahead
Investors were considering the effects of additional tariffs promised by Trump, including those related to oil and gas, as well as steel, aluminium, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals. Trump has also vowed actions against the EU.
“It’s only a matter of time before the EU is targeted,” said Marchel Alexandrovich of Saltmarsh Economics in London.
The EU said it was not aware of any additional tariffs being imposed on its products. A European Commission spokesperson said the EU “would respond firmly to any trading partner that unfairly or arbitrarily imposes tariffs on EU goods.”
Europe’s biggest carmaker, Volkswagen, said it was counting on talks to avoid trade conflict.
Automakers would be particularly hard hit, with new steep tariffs on vehicles built in Canada and Mexico burdening a vast regional supply chain where parts can cross borders several times before final assembly.
A White House fact sheet said the tariffs would stay in place “until the crisis alleviated,” but gave no details on what the three countries would need to do to win a reprieve.
Trump imposed only a 10% duty on energy products from Canada after concerns raised by oil refiners and Midwestern states. At nearly US$100 billion in 2023, imports of crude oil accounted for roughly a quarter of all US imports from Canada, according to US census bureau data.
The White House officials said that Canada specifically would no longer be allowed the “de minimis” US duty exemption for shipments under US$800. The officials said Canada, along with Mexico, has become a conduit for shipments of fentanyl and its precursor chemicals into the US via small packages that are not often inspected by customs agents.
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